NHC issues Advisories For Tropical Storms
It has been that time of year, and it looks like we have two potential storms headed towards the USA. Today Fiona was been downgraded and is no longer a concern. However I know some surfers who are getting really excited for some decent wave action. Hopefully we don’t see much in the way of a tropical storm or a hurricane on our shores. We are hoping this pushes fish closer to our shores, which is very possible. The National Hurricane Center has also issued an alert that this year could be the heaviest action since 2012 for hurricanes.
Press release …. “In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, NOAA calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is still expected to be the most active since 2012. Forecasters now expect a 70-percent chance of 12–17 named storms, of which 5–8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2–4 major hurricanes. The initial outlook called for 10–16 named storms, 4–8 hurricanes, and 1–4 major hurricanes. The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.”
“Given these competing conditions, La Niña, if it develops, will most likely be weak and have little impact on the hurricane season,” added Bell. NOAA announced today that La Niña is slightly favored to develop during the hurricane season.
To date, there have been five named storms, including two hurricanes (Alex and Earl). Four made landfall: Bonnie (in South Carolina), Colin (in western Florida), Danielle (in eastern Mexico), and Earl (in Belize and Mexico).”
From the National Hurricane Center (Issued Tuesday) …
On this Tuesday morning, NHC is issuing an advisories on Tropical Depression Fiona (has been down graded this morning), located several hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Gaston (still active and building), located about 450 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Elsewhere, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a tropical wave (Invest 99L). Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the northern Leeward Island and the Greater Antilles. Large-scale conditions could become more conducive later this week while the system moves near Hispaniola and then the southeastern and central Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance later this morning. Interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices for further details.
Get the latest on the tropics by visiting the NHC website atwww.hurricanes.gov