Florence Will Upgrade Back To A Hurricane, Lower East Coast Should Prepare
These are the latest updates from the National Hurricane Service. Florida to North Carolina are the likely area(s) to be hit or deal with landfall at this point and time. These trajectories can change, we know this but be prepared for our area as well. Storm surge will be an issue for the entire east coast as she approaches. Heavy surf and rip currents will be an issue. Beach erosion will most likely occur.
With decreased wind shear and warmer waters Florence is expected to spin back up into a hurricane by tonight (Saturday) into Sunday morning. She could be a major hurricane by mid-week. We are already seeing some wave action from her and remnants of Gordon. The biggest concern for the east coast is the fact that this 80 degree water is so close to the coast, that is a lot of “gas” for a major hurricane.
NHC … Bulletins …
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 54.7W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by the middle of next week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is expected to become a hurricane tonight, and rapid intensification is likely to begin on Sunday. Florence could become a major hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Data from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
748 WTNT41 KNHC 082045 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 A NOAA P3 aircraft conducted a research mission several hours ago in Florence and measured SFMR surface winds of around 60 kt and winds up to 65 kt at a flight level of 8000 feet. Velocities of 65-70 kt at 500 meters were also measured by the Doppler radar on the plane. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt. Dropsonde data also showed that the central pressure was down to 989 mb. Florence is slowly recovering from the dry air its circulation ingested while it was under the influence of strong shear. Convection in the outer bands is relatively thin but is deeper and more persistent near the center. Now that the shear has decreased and the warm waters ahead of Florence reach deeper into the ocean, continued strengthening is anticipated. In fact, the official forecast continues to show a period of rapid intensification, now beginning 12-24 hours, with Florence reaching major hurricane intensity between 36-48 hours. One fly in the ointment is that the SHIPS diagnostics are keeping mid-level relative humidities around the cyclone around 50 percent, which isn't particularly moist, but I'm going to assume that Florence will be able to scour out the dry air within its circulation in the coming days. The HCCA model and the ICON intensity consensus support maintaining a forecast peak intensity of 125 kt in 4 days or so, so no significant changes were made from the previous forecast. Regardless of the specifics of the other models--some of which are higher and some of which are lower--Florence is expected to be a powerful major hurricane on days 3 through 5 as it moves across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Florence is creeping westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt, trapped between high pressure to its northeast and southwest. A different blocking ridge is expected to develop north and northeast of Bermuda over the next few days, causing Florence to accelerate toward the west-northwest and northwest between days 3-5. There have been some notable shifts in the model guidance on this cycle, with the ECMWF model swinging to the northeast closer to the GFS, and the HWRF model swinging farther south along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. Despite this change in the deterministic ECMWF run, its individual ensemble members are still showing a significant spread of solutions from just north of the Bahamas to offshore the coast of North Carolina by day 5. Because of this spread, the updated NHC track forecast largely maintains continuity and remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. And despite the ECMWF's shift, this track prediction remains north of the HCCA and FSSE solutions. Key Messages: 1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those impacts. 2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue into next week. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 54.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.7N 56.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.0N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 26.9N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT.......110NE 40SE 30SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.7N 56.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.0N 58.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.9N 66.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 54.7W