Florence Will Upgrade Back To A Hurricane, Lower East Coast Should Prepare

These are the latest updates from the National Hurricane Service.  Florida to North Carolina are the likely area(s) to be hit or deal with landfall at this point and time.  These trajectories can change, we know this but be prepared for our area as well.  Storm surge will be an issue for the entire east coast as she approaches.  Heavy surf and rip currents will be an issue.  Beach erosion will most likely occur. 

  With decreased wind shear and warmer waters Florence is expected to spin back up into a hurricane by tonight (Saturday) into Sunday morning.  She could be a major hurricane by mid-week.  We are already seeing some wave action from her and remnants of Gordon.  The biggest concern for the east coast is the fact that this 80 degree water is so close to the coast, that is a lot of “gas” for a major hurricane.  

Be Prepared 

Rich King

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Key Messages about Florence

NHC …  Bulletins … 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 54.7W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 54.7 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected by the middle of next week.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is expected to become a hurricane tonight, and
rapid intensification is likely to begin on Sunday.  Florence could
become a major hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

Data from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the minimum central
pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
748 
WTNT41 KNHC 082045
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

A NOAA P3 aircraft conducted a research mission several hours ago
in Florence and measured SFMR surface winds of around 60 kt and
winds up to 65 kt at a flight level of 8000 feet.  Velocities of
65-70 kt at 500 meters were also measured by the Doppler radar on
the plane.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is raised to
60 kt.  Dropsonde data also showed that the central pressure was
down to 989 mb.

Florence is slowly recovering from the dry air its circulation
ingested while it was under the influence of strong shear.
Convection in the outer bands is relatively thin but is deeper and
more persistent near the center.  Now that the shear has decreased
and the warm waters ahead of Florence reach deeper into the ocean,
continued strengthening is anticipated.  In fact, the official
forecast continues to show a period of rapid intensification, now
beginning 12-24 hours, with Florence reaching major hurricane
intensity between 36-48 hours.  One fly in the ointment is that the
SHIPS diagnostics are keeping mid-level relative humidities around
the cyclone around 50 percent, which isn't particularly moist, but
I'm going to assume that Florence will be able to scour out the dry
air within its circulation in the coming days.  The HCCA model and
the ICON intensity consensus support maintaining a forecast peak
intensity of 125 kt in 4 days or so, so no significant changes were
made from the previous forecast.  Regardless of the specifics of
the other models--some of which are higher and some of which are
lower--Florence is expected to be a powerful major hurricane on
days 3 through 5 as it moves across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Florence is creeping westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt, trapped
between high pressure to its northeast and southwest.  A different
blocking ridge is expected to develop north and northeast of
Bermuda over the next few days, causing Florence to accelerate
toward the west-northwest and northwest between days 3-5.  There
have been some notable shifts in the model guidance on this cycle,
with the ECMWF model swinging to the northeast closer to the GFS,
and the HWRF model swinging farther south along the southern edge
of the guidance envelope.  Despite this change in the deterministic
ECMWF run, its individual ensemble members are still showing a
significant spread of solutions from just north of the Bahamas to
offshore the coast of North Carolina by day 5.  Because of this
spread, the updated NHC track forecast largely maintains
continuity and remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.
And despite the ECMWF's shift, this track prediction remains north
of the HCCA and FSSE solutions.

Key Messages:

1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue into next week.  These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 24.6N  54.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 24.6N  55.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 24.7N  56.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 25.0N  58.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 25.4N  60.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 26.9N  66.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 29.5N  72.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 32.5N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH

 

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  54.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT.......110NE  40SE  30SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  54.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  54.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N  55.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  50SE  30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.7N  56.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.0N  58.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N  60.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.9N  66.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 32.5N  77.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N  54.7W

 

 

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